EPIC
Independent Probability Analysis · Feb 28 – Mar 26, 2026
Operation
Epic Fury
A structured probability matrix tracking 54 variables across 12 checkpoints. Built from open-source intelligence, academic malignant narcissism research, and military doctrine analysis.
War Day
26
Feb 28 – Mar 26
US Troops in Region
50,000+
82nd Airborne deploying
WW3 Prob. (Def. C)
80%
Four in five probability
Quagmire Prob.
82%
Near-certainty; base case
Ceasefire 30d
28%
↓14 pts; plan rejected
± 8–12 pt confidence interval · MN = Malignant Narcissism Research Layer applied to decision-maker analysis · Not affiliated with any government or intelligence agency.
All assessments are independent analytical estimates based on open-source reporting.
Methodology note: Tucker Carlson reported Trump is being shown internal polls claiming 90% public support for the war. No credible public polling supports this figure. The aggregate of all high-quality surveys (NPR/PBS/Marist, CNN/SSRS, Economist/YouGov, Angus Reid) shows 38–44% support, 49–59% opposition. The 90% figure likely derives from MAGA-base-only filtering, Republican-only internals, or leading-question methodology. A president believing 90% support has no self-correcting psychological incentive to seek an exit — combined with the NIC report confirming war aims are unachievable, this constitutes a catastrophic information environment failure.